Don't Worry. Be Cautious.

Those of you who know me will agree that I am a perpetual optimist. The glass is always half full – or better. (I would like to assure my management here at Reed Business Information that this is responsible optimism.)

We are frequently asked by the mainstream media to comment on how the tradeshow industry is doing – largely due to the fact that we have a crate-load of research telling us how it is doing. As you all know, that information is getting more difficult to distill and interpret. However, I speak to many of you frequently, and it seems every one of you is almost uniformly optimistic right now.

I am hearing words like "We see the light at the end of the tunnel," or "Our clients are buying, and we will have a strong quarter," or (my favorite) "We just had a great show."

Clearly, the economy is picking up. The major indices are positive in ways we have not seen for some time. In February alone, six consumer product segments outperformed the S&P, Nasdaq and Dow Jones averages (see the accompanying chart). This is great news – it does not take an economist to figure out that people are buying things again.

But cautiousness does and should reign. This industry got whacked about as hard as any could be by the recession, terrorism, war, disease – and virtually all at once (giving Murphy and his law lasting equity). Exhibit houses folded, transportation companies merged or collapsed, show managers changed strategies quickly, thousands of people lost their jobs.

We are hungry for growth (or in some cases, just simple stability), but let's not be too hungry. The strength of this industry is its passion for getting people together to do business. Let's use that understanding of human nature and human need to reinforce our own radar – or as my stockbroker says, our "tummy quotient" – and make good decisions without letting the improving news get to our heads.