TSW Quarterly Report Shows Flat Growth in First Quarter

By Rachelle Crum -- Tradeshow Week, 5/24/2004

Tradeshow statistics for the first quarter of 2004 are not that much different from those of the first quarter of 2003.

According to Tradeshow Week's Quarterly Report of Tradeshow Statistics, shows taking place during the first quarter of 2004 generally demonstrated flat growth with only slight increases in any index compared with the year-ago quarter. The most substantial growth was a 1.2-percent gain in net square footage. Growth for the number of exhibiting companies was 0.3 percent. Professional attendance increased 0.6 percent.

Information technology shows were responsible for much of that increase. When calculated independently, those shows gave the quarter a boost, with a 5.6-percent increase in net square footage. Medical shows dragged the quarter's net square footage measurement downward by 2.1 percent.

Although 22 first-quarter shows improved by 20 percent or more over their first quarter 2003 statistics in at least one measure of growth, most of them were small shows and, cumulatively, do not represent enough net square footage to boost the average much. The average net square footage of these fast-growing shows was 171,749, and nearly two-thirds of them were under 150,000 net square feet.

Several show managers of larger first-quarter shows noticed little change from 2003, attributing it to participants' "been there, done that" mentality or space limitations.

For instance, the New York Intl. Gift Fair grew by 0.6 percent to 670,520 net sq. ft.

Kevin Johnstone, director of tradeshows for the NAMMshow, said, "I'm very concerned when I walk in the front doors of a show and it looks the same as it did when I walked out the year before."

Johnstone said he believes exhibitors are operating lean and mean and "dropping shows that aren't showing value to them."

Johnstone said the size of the Anaheim Convention Center, where NAMMwas held in January, restricted the show's growth. The 2004 show was 159 net sq. ft. smaller than the previous year, but saw increases of 3 percent and 13 percent in exhibiting companies and attendance, respectively. "If we had more space, we would have grown significantly," Johnstone said.

The one exception to the lack of growth among big shows was the 2004 Intl. CES, which will likely be the largest show on the 2005 Tradeshow Week 200, as it was in 2004 for its 2003 event. At 1,390,618 net sq. ft., Intl. CESgrew 11.3 percent and announced it is taking over additional space at the Sands Expo & Convention Center in 2006.

Managers of shows that did grow cited an improving economy and increased spending in the first quarter, historically the busiest for tradeshows.

Marilyn McKinnis, HELI-EXPO's director of marketing and expositions, said she believes resources were freed up by those in her industry who were apprehensive and "holding back" after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks and the beginning of the war in Iraq.

"I think people have just been down for a couple of years and they were just ready in 2004," said McKinnis, whose March Las Vegas show experienced growth in each index, with the largest, 18 percent, in attendance. McKinnis also credits her show's success to having the right attendees and to supporting the show's exhibitors. "The exhibitors and attendees all left really excited," she said.

The average show in this report spanned 203,383 net sq. ft., had 680 exhibiting companies and was attended by 13,146 professionals. The average booth at a first-quarter show took up 299 sq. ft. while the average attendee-to-exhibitor ratio came in at 20-1.

Some managers credited federal initiatives involving health information technology and broadband technology for their success with highly specialized shows, primarily those that attract attendees from governmental agencies such as the Departments of Homeland Security and Defense.

That may have helped the March FOSE show said Lorenz Hassenstein, tradeshows vice president of show producer PostNewsweek Tech Media Group. FOSE saw a 10-percent increase in net square footage and a 1-percent increase in professional attendance over last year.

"The government market continues to be a growing market," said Hassenstein, who expects a prosperous year. "We're sensing now that there's a recovery in place. I think people are starting to look back at the growth curve."

Another government-related first-quarter tradeshow, J. Spargo & Associate's AFCEA/USNI Western Conference & Exposition (Armed Forces Communications & Electronics Assn./United States Naval Institute),saw a 20-percent increase in exhibiting companies, 18-percent growth in net square footage and 7-percent increase in professional attendance.