Show Trends: Many Thrive, but Will It Last?

By Gary Tufel -- Tradeshow Week, 6/21/2004

Indicators point to a consumer exhibition industry that is strong and healthy. But it's not all sunshine and roses; like their trade-only counterparts, consumer shows still have to contend with the effects of these uncertain times.

Right now, consumer shows are vibrant, said Dick Engebretson, executive vice president of North American consumer events for dmg world media. As evidence, he pointed to home shows, which benefited from the post-9/11 "nesting" phenomenon, low interest rates, high home values and low inventory. Automobile and recreation vehicle shows likewise have benefited from strong consumer spending.

Tradeshow Week's 2003 Annual Report of Consumer Show Statistics supports Engebretson's observations. It showed 4.9-percent overall growth in net square feet. Significant growth was reported for such shows as the Home & Garden Show at South Florida Expo Center, where exhibit space increased by 95 percent; Kansas City Remodeling Show, up 36.4 percent; Seattle RV and Outdoor Recreation Show, 42.5 percent; and Home Idea Show, 50 percent.

Still, attendance isn't skyrocketing. The TSW report reflected a 0.8-percent decline in consumer show visitors, and if interest rates rise, home buying — as well as consumer spending in general — could be negatively impacted. Rising fuel prices could slow RV purchases, putting a dent in these shows, but auto shows could benefit, as carmakers continue to introduce new economy lines, such as gasoline-electric hybrids.

Bruce Goldweitz, group vice president of Reed Exhibitions, believes interest rates, gas prices and consumer confidence aren't the only social phenomena impacting the consumer show industry. The ongoing war and an approaching presidential election are among the other factors he said could affect growth.

Goldweitz also pointed out that hall rental rates are increasing. But while space is getting more expensive for consumer show managers, at least it's getting easier to secure as the longstanding problem of date protection vanishes. Jim Fricke, executive director of the Colorado Garden & Home Show and NACS treasurer, said that with more space and dates available, there's less chance of a tradeshow bumping a consumer show.

The 2003 Tradeshow Week Major Exhibit Hall Directory reported a marked increase in total U.S. and Canadian exhibit space — from 63.4 million square feet in 1999 to 77.2 million in 2003. Between August 2003 and July 2004, another 3 million square feet will come online. At the same time, the size of tradeshows has declined, prompting concerns about overbuilding.

Fricke pointed out that an increase in new tradeshow launches could lead to the return of date protection problems. But he isn't too worried; he's projecting his show to increase from 300,000 net sq. ft. in 2004 to 400,000 next year.

Mike Fisher, NACS executive director, said, "Most facilities understand that they need to protect our dates, but a few focus totally on the bottom line and will bump a consumer show. Some even book competing consumer shows, especially with smaller home shows."

He said the association does its best to educate facilities, but it's the convention and visitors bureaus that book shows that cause the problem, putting buildings in the middle. "This used to be all-out war," he said, "but it hasn't been as bad in the past five or six years."

Goldweitz is also watching how the public spends its discretionary income. The competition for entertainment dollars is increasing, with everything from HBO and home theater, to movies and sporting events giving consumer shows a run for their money.

"We haven't seen anything really new since golf and women's shows," said Goldweitz. "Producers would rather buy an existing show than develop a new one. But we must come up with ways to address the next generation's needs." He aims to do this by adding youth-oriented features.

Fisher said that exhibitor bases have grown slightly and attendance has held up. The hottest shows are in the home and garden, boat, auto and sportsman/RV industries.

He observed that electronics shows are also hot, but if too many attendees use TiVo and other technologies to avoid ads, consumer show managers would be forced to find other media to promote their events. Fricke said he has seen a huge increase in ad rates. This helps consumer shows, since companies may see exhibiting as more cost-effective. It also hurts: Fricke's ad budget has increased 10 percent a year, to almost $230,000.