TSW Crystal Ball: What Will 2004 Be Like?

Like our readers, the editors of Tradeshow Week speculate from time to time about things to come. We even ask our sources to think about the future once in a while, an opportunity that arose dozens of times during Expo! Expo! IAEM's annual meeting and exhibition in Las Vegas early this month.

Here's a bit of what we heard.

Will tradeshows shrink or expand over the coming year?

Your call.

Tradeshow Week's own quarterly reports suggest an upward trajectory of growth that should be around 2 percent. A report prepared by Veronis Suhler Stevenson predicts a 4-percent increase in exhibitor spending in 2004, compared with 2.4-percent growth in 2003.

Show management company most likely to be sold?

Hanley-Wood Exhibitions was bought in 1999 by VS&A Communications Partners, the private-equity arm of media merchant bank VSS. Private-equity firms typically hold investments for three to seven years.

"I think Hanley Wood is ripe for the sales block in 2004. Their numbers are good and it's time for the principles to move on," said Bob Dallmeyer, president of RD Intl.

Show most likely to move to a new locale from a longstanding one?

Look for the Assn. of Woodworking & Furnishings Suppliers to move its biennial AWFSFair from Anaheim to Las Vegas in 2005. This is no small change, as the 400,000 square foot show has been a Southern California staple for 46 years.

Who will replace Tom Mobley as general manager of McCormick Place?

Although they won't call it a shoo-in, insiders at the Chicago Convention & Tourism Bureau say acting general manager David Causton has a pretty good shot at the permanent job. As Mobley's longtime right-hand man, Causton would perpetuate his predecessor's hands-on, operationally focused style, making the transition seamless.

Show management sectors most likely to explode this year?

"Health care and biotechnology are two, as is ethnic marketing to specific ethnic groups. There will be more focused shows, targeting slices of industries," said Denyse Selesnick, president of Intl. Trade Information.

Show most likely to top the Tradeshow Week 200 in 2004?

No question here: Intl. CES. With the mega-consumer electronics show on a seemingly unstoppable roll, sucking up business from its flagging former competitors in the IT show sector, predictions on this one are practically unanimous.

Which hardware show will survive?

Too close to call. Those who believe in the power of association sponsorship and the management skills of an independent firm like ConvExx believe the AHMA Hardware Show in Chicago will prevail. But the Las Vegas location and deep pockets of corporate show manager Reed Exhibitions cause just as many observers to put their money on the Natl. Hardware Show.

Which new show management company will make a big splash this year?

Jason Chudnofsky's Next Step Media, poised to launch a series of regional finance and insurance industry shows next fall, once Chudnofsky's noncompete agreement with MediaLive Intl. expires. Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Dallas and San Francisco are possible venues.

Which privately held operation is most likely to go public?

Mutterings are that Las Vegas Sands will turn to the public markets for support, taking its place alongside other publicly traded Strip giants. Las Vegas Sands owns the Venetian Casino-Resort and the Sands Convention & Expo Center, the only large, privately held convention center in the United States. The operation is headed by Chairman Sheldon Adelson who, during IAEM's recent FutureFocus, detailed his company's plans to build a mega-resort in the Chinese city of Macau.