What's First? The Tradeshow or Industry?

We Tradeshow Week readers and editors, those who do business and those who observe it, are just alike. We're constantly shifting the tea leaves around, trying to figure out what the next big thing that's going to affect the industry is.

My colleague Heidi Genoist often makes the case to me that the ups and downs of the tradeshows associated with a particular industry are as good an economic indicator as any of how that sector is doing. Certainly, if you leaf back through a couple years' worth of issues of TSW, there is plenty of evidence to back up her argument.

Look at the proliferation of stories we have carried in the last year or so on VOIP show launches. Then look at the way smart entrepreneurs appear to be finding ways to use the Internet for more and more of our communication needs. Look at the ongoing boom in the consumer electronics sector, then note that most years Intl. CES tops the TSW 200.

Next, check the handful of short stories we did in the past year about the launches of scrapbooking shows, presumably following a trend in American culture of families cataloguing their lives. Many of those brief show launch stories were followed by even briefer announcements that, well, this or that show will not be launching after all. Think back: Outside of a few select areas in the country, that scrapbooking craze never really took off.

But there's another twist to this theory. Late last month, Ford announced it would be restructuring — the euphemism every company uses to cut people, production and costs in a panicked struggle to get back in the black. That came a few months on the heels of a similar announcement from General Motors. This week, TSW Associate Editor Margo McCall has written a story asking whether the transformation of the American automotive industry would impact the auto show sector.

You can read McCall's story yourself to learn the answer, but I will share the comments of one source. John Marriott, vice president and general manager of Motor Trend Auto Shows, said, "Once a manufacturer gets a chunk of floor space, they hold onto it, even when business turns down. Once a manufacturer has a footprint, they rarely downsize, because once it's gone, they're not going to get it back."

That sounds a lot like what we heard from exhibitors when we reported late last year that Singapore would find its own version of Asian Aerospace 2006 to do in 2008, and Reed Exhibitions would move its show to another city. Because of the competitive atmosphere in global aviation, a gigantic industry that is not exactly experiencing a growth spurt, this meant that major exhibitors would have one more show to go to — whether they liked it or not.

"The aviation industry is not getting any bigger," said Sal Cavallero, marketing support manager for United Technologies, pointing out that his company would have to add the extra show to its schedule simply because all of its competitors would too.

These large, traditional manufacturing industries that appear to be collapsing under their own weight seem to demonstrate the problems they have by the message shows associated with them are sending their customers: Exhibit with us, when and where we say, whether it helps your business or not — you don't have any choice in the matter.

So maybe it's true: The health of a tradeshow — good or bad — is an accurate barometer of the industry it serves.