What, Us Worry?

Fear of avian flu might create more havoc than actual pandemic itself

By Margo McCall -- Tradeshow Week, 4/3/2006

Is it too soon to worry about what an outbreak of avian flu could do to your event?

Consider this: Fewer than 200 human cases of avian flu have been reported, and less than half have been fatal, according to the World Health Organization. No cases have been found in North America. The illness is spread by direct exposure to diseased birds. And efforts are being taken to destroy infected flocks.

But here are a few more things to think about: The flu is spreading from Asia to Africa to Europe through impossible-to-control migratory birds. The H5N1 virus causing the current outbreak is very deadly. There's no vaccination for the virus, it's resistant to traditional antiviral treatments, and a similar avian flu is blamed for the 1918 influenza epidemic, which killed 40 million people.

As most in the exhibition business know, the fear of risk is frequently as damaging to an event's turnout as the actual risk itself.

"When the first cases of bird-to-bird flu come to the United States, the news media is going to make that a lot more than it is," predicted Galen Poss, president of Hanley Wood Exhibitions and chairman of the Society of Independent Show Organizers. "People won't necessarily gather that it's bird to bird. And as we all know, until it's human to human, it isn't a concern."

Industry members remember how business travel came to a screeching halt after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, and how organizers in Toronto and throughout Asia had to cancel and reschedule events after people were sickened by SARS in 2003.

Although the threat of avian flu disrupting events still seems a ways off, some in the tradeshow and business travel industries are beginning to take notice. The United Nations World Tourism Organization recently briefed attendees at ITB Berlin, the world's largest travel fair, on how the international community is responding to the outbreak and what can be done to prepare for a possible pandemic.

The Intl. Assn. for Exhibition Management has placed a list of helpful avian flu links on its Web site, including a business planning checklist put out by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.

SISO is following suit, producing an online white paper and backup disaster plan. "Anytime that there's a threat that could disrupt face-to-face events, there's cause for concern," said Mary Beth Rebedeau, SISO's executive director. "There are things people should start thinking about."

IAEM President Steven Hacker said his group would add to its online resources as the situation develops. "There is widespread concern among our membership that an interruption in travel as a result of avian flu, either the actuality of a pandemic or fear of the pandemic, would be an interruption in the normal activity of the industry," Hacker said.

U.S. Department of Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff recently warned that avian flu could hit American shores within months. But he also cautioned that its spread could be thwarted by the country's indoor poultry operations.

Human cases have only been reported since late 2003 in six countries: Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Iraq, Thailand, Turkey and Vietnam. The country of Vietnam is responsible for more than half of the reported human cases so far.

Although cases of human-to-human transmission are currently rare, health officials fear that the strain could eventually mutate into a form that is more easily spread among humans. Health care workers in affected areas are being advised to wash hands frequently and be cautious with patients with flu symptoms.

Bob Mellinger, president of disaster-planning consultancy Attainium, said he is getting more and more requests for presentations to meeting planner groups. He sees two separate problems. First, there's the fear of getting sick. And second, there's the actual pandemic, which according to the U.S. Congressional Budget Office, could cause 90 million infections, 2 million deaths and a 5-percent drop in gross domestic product.

"The fear is one thing. There are people who will choose not to do something because they're afraid," he said. "Who's going to want to go to a tradeshow where everybody's wearing masks?"

But it would become an economic issue if a pandemic took hold. "The machinery of business will come to a grinding halt," Mellinger said. "Nobody's going to want to go anywhere. Nobody's going to be able to go anywhere. Who's going to fly the plane? Who's going to work at the hotel? Do you want someone sick preparing your food?"

On the tradeshow front, Mellinger recommended that organizers check their event-cancellation insurance clauses and make sure venues are prepared. He also suggested staying informed, but not giving in to panic and fear. "You have to be aware of it. You have to make sure you understand what the current level of impact can be," he said.

Lessons might also be drawn from SARS, which according to the WHO, infected 8,437 people in 2003, killing 813. While the WHO imposed travel restrictions to stem that outbreak, show organizers tried everything from disinfecting venues to taking attendees' temperatures and handing out face masks.

Nonetheless, it brought tradeshow activity to a halt for several months in Asia and several weeks in Toronto. Only 100 people in Canada contracted the disease, 18 of them fatally.

SARS was also the impetus for insurers adding communicable diseases to their exclusion lists. It's still possible to obtain cancellation insurance with coverage for infectious diseases — providing your event is six months out. That's likely not to be the case for shows scheduled a year or two from now.

"Yes, the insurance is available. But the cost of it, and how readily available it is, is a function of when your event is," said Jack Buttine, president of John Buttine Insurance. "What insurance companies fear is the unknown, and what they're fearful of they'll charge for."

Buttine said his company, which offers ShowDown cancellation insurance as an IAEM services partner, is investigating a strategy for pricing insurance with coverage for infectious diseases.

One thing to bear in mind, though, is that fear of an infectious disease such as the avian flu isn't enough justification to file a successful claim.

"If you look back to what happened with SARS, the events weren't canceled because people were sick, they were canceled because people were fearful," Buttine said. "Avian flu has to affect your show. It has to come into your town. Just like unspecified fear of earthquakes and hurricanes isn't going to trigger your earthquake and hurricane insurance policies."

And it's up to the insured to demonstrate a loss. "If you suffered a loss in Toledo, and one chicken and a farmer died in Miami, proving a loss might be difficult," he said.