Q1 Feels So Flat

Tradeshows in the first quarter of 2008 registered slight growth in net square footage and number of exhibitors, while attendance took a small hit.

According to the Tradeshow Week Quarterly Report of Tradeshow Statistics, the first quarter concluded with a 0.3-percent gain in number of exhibiting companies, mirroring 2007's first-quarter growth in that index. Also falling in line with the first quarter of 2007, the 1.2-percent decline in number of attendees landed very close to the 1.6-percent decrease in the same period last year.

The only notable difference between the first quarter of 2007 and 2008 was net square footage, which registered a minute increase of 0.5 percent, compared with 2.8-percent growth in 2007.

The results are mixed when the collective statistics are broken out according to sectors or regions.

Shows held in Las Vegas were not exempt from losses, exhibiting decreases in all three indexes. Net square footage on shows there was down 2.6 percent, number of exhibitors dipped 2.7 percent and attendance waned 1.8 percent.

The medical sector managed to come through the first quarter unscathed though, as healthy growth was exhibited in all indexes: a 3.4-percent increase in net square footage, 2.7 percent more exhibiting companies and a robust 5.2-percent rise in attendance.

TSW Associate Publisher and Director of Research Services Michael Hughes noted similarities between the current economic slowdown and the one that took place in the early 1990s. During both periods, there was overall lower growth in net square footage and number of exhibiting companies, accompanied by the dip in attendance.

“Today, as then, the economy experienced a housing and banking crisis,” Hughes said. “In 1991, tradeshow growth was essentially flat.”

However, he added, if the pattern continues to play itself out in coming quarters, it will ultimately be good news for the exhibition industry.

Hughes explained: “Usually, it is a sign of a slowdown when net square footage grows more than attendance. But when the economy picks up, attendance will bounce back quickly. By the fourth quarter of 1991, attendance was growing again by 3.1 percent.”

There were other shows outside the medical sector that escaped the less-than-encouraging trend. Despite the rocky state of the economy, Industrial Fire, Safety and Security's numbers enjoyed a steep climb between 2007 and 2008. To a certain extent, its relatively small showfloor provided the advantage of scale: Adding nearly 16,000 net square feet was enough to make a big difference. The show grew 80.3 percent, from 20,300 net square feet to 36,600 net sq. ft. The number of exhibitors went from 128 companies to 207, a 61.7-percent increase, and attendance rose 90.5 percent, from 998 attendees in 2007 to 1,901 attendees in 2008.

“It's just a growing industry,” Senior Conference Manager Laura Liptak said of the industrial security sector. “(There are) incidences which need to be discussed and lessons learned that folks in the industry want to discuss in order to better themselves at their jobs.”

Larger shows managed to grow their showfloors as well. The Pumper & Cleaner Environmental Expo Intl.'s net square footage shot up from 202,924 net sq. ft. to 311,900 net sq. ft., a 53.7-percent increase.

Bob Kendall, owner of Cole Publishing, the show's manager, attributed the growth largely to a change of venue.

“When we moved (from Nashville, Tenn., to Louisville, Ky.), we now had available space, so there was a pent-up demand (from) exhibitors,” Kendall said. “So the growth of the show was really based on the move to a hall that could accommodate more of the equipment.”

The ability to move more exhibitors onto the showfloor played a major part in increasing the show's number of exhibitors 25.4 percent, from 448 companies in 2007 to 562 companies this year. However, unlike IFSS, attendance remained fairly stagnant, with a 0.5-percent decline. The 2008 Pumper and Cleaner show hosted 11,415 attendees, compared with 2007's 11,467 attendees.

The most consistently weak performance of the first quarter was in the gift show sector, which collectively dropped 3.3 percent in both net square footage and exhibitors. Attendance decreased even further still, by 5.1 percent.

The New York Intl. Gift Fair was somewhat of an exception, going down only in attendance – albeit a steep decline of 10 percent (36,000 attendees in 2008, compared with 40,000 last year). Net square footage for the show remained steady with 0.2-percent growth while the number of exhibiting companies increased 6.5 percent.

Dorothy Belshaw, senior vice president and director of the NYIGF, cited increased caution on the part of suppliers and attendees, as well as continuing consolidation on the retail side of the gift business for the attendance drop. But, she remained optimistic.

“I think one of the positive things that comes out of an economic downturn is ... a renewed level of creativity,” Belshaw said. “We see both retailers and suppliers looking to diversify their lines.”

That creativity that comes with rising from the ashes of an economic downturn is not necessarily restricted to the show's customers either. With fewer representatives being sent to the show by a growing number of more cautious retailers, the NYIGF adjusted some of its marketing tactics in response to the shrinking attendee base.

“We typically promoted the show as a broad-based cross-category gift show,” Belshaw said. “Recently, what we have tried to do instead is to take segments, ... and where we have critical mass in a particular vertical segment, we can promote that to buyers that may not otherwise think to attend a gift fair.”

She added, “(We) have to think smarter about the way that we promote our shows and the way they're perceived, not only in our core gift industry, but also in other related industries. That's how we've been able to augment our attendance instead of having much deeper losses than we have had.”