Travel: The Worst Is Yet to Come

On Page One is a story by Senior Editor Rachel Wimberly with the headline “Top Show Destinations Brace for Flight Fallout.” In light of the news that major tradeshow destinations are going to be subject to a flurry of flight schedule reductions and steep airline fare increases before the year is over, we decided to see if anybody in any of these cities was worried – and, if they were, what they were going to do about it.

Wimberly spoke with convention and visitors bureau officials in the three Tier I cities of Las Vegas, Chicago and Orlando. While offering some potential strategies that don't seem to be exactly to the point, they did their best to minimize the situation … which is fair enough: If it were my job to lure visitors to my city, I wouldn't want to tell Tradeshow Week I was worried that the airlines are about to thwart my best-laid plans, either.

Also in fairness, Natl. Business Travel Assn. President and CEO Kevin Maguire told Wimberly the real trouble caused by the airline cutbacks will be felt in leisure travelers canceling their vacations, not business travelers deciding to skip their annual industry meetings or sales calls.

However, it doesn't seem exactly coincidental that just as we were wrapping this issue up, the Intl. Assn. of Exhibitions and Events announced the formation of a new Air Transportation Crisis Task Force, addressing what IAEE President Steven Hacker already told TSW is one of the most serious issues facing the tradeshow industry today.

Way back in our April 7 issue, we polled as many industry professionals as we possibly could about how the larger economic downturn is affecting tradeshows. The consensus was that, certain sectors notwithstanding, everything would turn out fine. In fact, most people said the current problems seem like mere bumps in the road compared with the downturn at the beginning of this decade – as long as nothing happens that would stop the public from traveling.

And yet, here we are:

• The airport security measures that seemed Draconian, albeit necessary, after the events of Sept. 11 not only remain in place, but have only gotten more restrictive
• Very little progress has been made in making the visa process easier for foreigners who want to visit the United States. If anything, travel to and from other countries has become more complicated.
• Air fares are increasing by leaps and bounds, even on some of the most popular, most competitive routes.
• Airlines are finding things to charge customers for that even six months ago did not seem imaginable, i.e., the first piece of checked baggage, a soda, a pillow.
• Finally, the flight schedules are being slashed – and it will get only worse after Labor Day.

Many of our readers are seasoned travelers who have to leave home, whether they like it or not, as often as 30 or 40 or 50 times a year. They will somehow deal with all this.

But their customers will not. The average businessperson, who once attended four or five tradeshows a year, may cut that back to one. The executive who took one trip a year to his industry's annual meeting will forget about it altogether.

This is what people were talking about when they told us a while back that everything would be fine “as long as nothing happens that would stop the public from traveling.”

IAEE is right to take this issue seriously.

Michael Hart is editor-in-chief of Tradeshow Week. He can be reached at hartm@reedbusiness.com.