China Trade Fair Catches U.S. Cold

It's starting to look as if fewer and fewer shows are immune from current economic woes. Even some giant shows that always were successful in the past apparently now are suffering.

Case in point: the semiannual 104th China Import and Export Fair, also known as the Canton Fair, held twice a year since 1957 in Guangzhou, China, at the China Import & Export Fair Pazhou Complex, and organized by the China Foreign Trade Centre.

Known as the largest tradeshow in China, the 101st edition drew 206,749 attendees, it encompasses a staggering array of exhibit categories. This fall, for the first time, the show was held in three separate phases at the Pazhou Complex for different groups of product categories: Phase 1 ran Oct. 15-19; Phase 2, Oct. 24-28; and Phase 3, Nov. 2-6.

But, there's trouble in paradise. According to numerous Chinese media outlets, as well as tradeshow observers, there was a sharp downturn in this fall's attendance, compared with the show held earlier this year in April, and the decrease was collectively blamed on the worsening global economy. One report said there had been a 27-percent decrease in buyers since the April show.

Michael Duck, senior vice president of CMP Asia, said there have been numerous reports about the Canton Fair having reduced attendance. He added he'd read of a 25-percent decrease, but until the official audited figures come through, Duck said, it's very difficult to tell exactly.

“I don't think it's any surprise to people as it's a China show for export only (there is a small import section), and the U.S. and European retail markets have been hard hit by the recent economic crisis,” he added. “Those shows in Asia that have been exhibiting both imports as well as exports are a bit more resilient as the retail business in Asia has not (as of yet) been as badly hit.”

Paul Woodward, principal of Hong Kong-based Business Strategies Group, said, although it's all been somewhat anecdotal, reports have been suggesting that Canton Fair attendance was “well down.”

Woodward wrote a blog post about it recently and cited a recent report in the South China Morning Post. The general consensus seems to be a 20-percent-plus drop in visitors, he said.

“Interestingly, the Hong Kong Sourcing Fairs tradeshows were somewhat less affected; the electronics fairs were pretty steady in terms of visitor numbers, while the gifts and homeware events were reportedly about 10- to 15-percent down in visitor numbers,” he added. The Sourcing Fairs similarly represent a vast range of product categories.

Camellia So, general manager of corporate affairs at Global Sources, which produces the Sourcing Fairs, said, “What I've seen and heard from the press so far was that the traffic in Canton Fair was bad, but I haven't seen any media publish a figure of decline. I do hear that Canton Fair saw an increase of buyers from emerging markets. I think we would all agree that the decline is primarily due to the financial turmoil in the U.S. and the global economic slowdown triggered by the U.S. financial market.”

So noted that in the just-completed fall series of the China Sourcing Fairs, there was an increase of buyers from such emerging markets as Russia, the Middle East, India, Turkey, Poland and Brazil.

In his blog, Woodward advised keeping an eye out for updates on the barometer of economic activity, which the Canton Fair and its Hong Kong counterparts represent. He said the Canton Fair organizers understandably were being coy about early releases of visitor figures, but the South China Morning Post had quoted one exhibitor in Guangzhou suggesting that organizers lost 70 percent of the usual attendees.

Woodward said he doubted that, but added he had read another report where interpreters lined up outside the exhibition hall offering their services to visitors were interviewed. Spanish interpreters still seemed to be in demand, although their rates have dropped from China Yuan Renminbi 700 ($106) a day for the April Canton Fair to Rmb 500 ($73). English interpreters, obviously more plentiful, are struggling to find takers at Rmb 200-300 ($29-$44) a day, while one girl was (unsuccessfully) offering Rmb 150 (around $20), he said. But even with cut rates, there weren't enough buyers to go around, and the reporter described large groups of interpreters waiting all day outside the Pazhou Complex, Woodward added.

Cliff Wallace, managing director of the Hong Kong Convention & Exhibition Centre and outgoing president of UFI, The Global Assn. of the Exhibition Industry, said, “We know there was a decrease in attendance in Guangzhou at the Canton Fair, and I am confident it is due to the global economic downturn. They do not release audited numbers.”

He said the HKCEC also had been experiencing attendance declines for the past several weeks in its major tradeshows, ranging from 5 percent to 15 percent. “We expect this will continue until global industry confidence returns,” Wallace added.

He noted that exhibitors have not decreased as of yet, but only time will tell. Major drops in the global stock markets on any given day will send more fear through the industry and, at the moment, he said, confidence is lost faster than it is revived with any major “downturn announcement” or forecast.

“Our industry must unite, and all must be prepared to sacrifice at all levels. But for some reason, my gut tells me it won't be as long as many think,” Wallace said. “But that's just my gut, mind you.”

The Canton Fair did not respond to Tradeshow Week's requests for comment.