On Staying Close to Home

I'm like everybody. I keep waiting for that one signal that will convince me that we have finally reached the end of the economic maelstrom. Actually, I'm waiting for the signal immediately after that, the one that gives me optimism that we have not just reached the bottom, but are on the way back.

It still hasn't happened. I felt confident that we would have at least a glimmer of good news with this week's annual report on health care shows. Although those who work in the health care tradeshow sector have cautioned us against believing it was somehow recession-resistant, it was hard for many of us to see how the growth there could be stopped.

It hasn't stopped, either, but it has slowed. In fact, we have learned from the report elsewhere in this issue that the sector had, at best, a flat year. Square footage was up 0.6 percent, attendance a mere 0.1 percent and number of exhibiting companies dropped 0.5 percent.

I know, I know. Many tradeshow organizers would love to have those numbers right now.

And when you look closely at the charts, you can see some interesting anomalies. The Natl. Teaching Institute & Critical Care Exposition grew its attendance 35.4 percent last May, from 6,861 to approximately 9,290. By the way, it was held in Chicago.

The Greater New York Dental Meeting, held in November at Jacob K. Javits Convention Center of New York, saw its showfloor grow by 28.7 percent and attendance was up nearly 5 percent.

It's true, these shows took place last year, and everyone is expecting this year to be much worse.

However, I recently spoke with Karen Malone, who is preparing for the Healthcare Information and Management Systems Society's HIMSS Annual Conference & Exhibition April 4-8 at McCormick Place in Chicago. She told me pre-registration was down only 2 percent from last year's record-breaking HIMSS in New Orleans.

There is a pattern here. Two of the shows I mentioned took place or will take place in Chicago. The other is in New York. These are the two U.S. cities with the largest population within an easy day's drive.

(Meanwhile, I'm sorry to say, we reported late last week that renovations at the Las Vegas Convention Center – not an easy day's drive from anywhere – have been postponed, giving you further indication of how things are going there.)

At times like this, we all speculate about whether things will return more or less to normal once the crisis ends – or whether business models will be changed forever. A couple of years ago, when most shows still were growing, our regular readers had their worries that the rising cost and the sheer hassle of traveling would eventually be the reason people would simply stop going to their events.

Add the indignities being delivered to the meetings and events industry by politicians (see my colleague Stephanie Corbin's comments on that one column over) to the mix and suddenly cities with lots of people close by look a lot more attractive than those that require a plane trip.

Michael Hart is editor-in-chief of Tradeshow Week. He can be reached at hartm@reedbusiness.com.