Funny stuff. Even funnier is doing a Google search on 'RFID trade shows Steven Hacker'. What you see is 4 years worth of the same kind of preditions by the same 'expert', where only the name of the technology (RFID) changes; even the pet vendor name (BD Metrics) stays the same. After 4 years of preditions, RFID has found a home at less than 2% of all trade shows in the US and less than 1% worldwide. I love the last line about 'I predict that this technology application will quickly dominate....' seems like deja vous all over again!

DevilsAdvocate I agree that RFID never has caught the excitement to match the hype, but it does have a role. I am curious to hear where your stats come from. I don't mind technology predictions that don't always come true. If we were always right, I would quit my day job and become a wealthy investor in the next innovation. In the meanwhile, a solid proposal regarding new technologies is fine by me. I am curious - what do you predict is the next important innovation?

Fully support the idea of mobile-based codes taking the place of brochures, business cards, handouts and surveys. We also agree that SMS, Cellular WAP, iPhone, Android and others will eventually be a well-accepted means for transmitting these types of codes. We are still, however, seeing where cell coverage and high-enough adoption rates continue to be THE limiting factor. Especially when you are underground as many large convention centers are. Cell carriers are still hit and miss even though facilities add repeaters.

We're still a few years away from enough adoption, coverage and acceptance to get 50% to 75% audience participation at the typical show. While the type of audience can skew this number up or down, this is a trend that several companies are preparing for (including us) but will be 2-3 more years in the making.

Think about the promise of a PDF file in the mid-90's. The paperless office was promised by the end of the century... but as 2000 approached, only the industries with the most paper to shed had climbed aboard. It has taken the better part of this decade for the PDF to really become a household word.

This technology continues to evolve and great ideas abound, but we're facing a pretty long set of hurdles between where we are now and where we need to be to see this replace traditional tradeshow and event methods.

Interesting comments by DevilsAdvocate - sounds VERY similar to ones I heard at Expo! Expo! in 2005. I also would like to know where those RFID adoption stats are being pulled from. RFID does have a role unless you've built your vendor services around barcode scanners and room monitors!

David,
It is all about the percentages, isn't it? What percent of the audience has smartphones...what percent will participate...what percent get a signal? It will be nice when the percentages reach 100%.

I know that BusyEvents has some great tools for connecting audiences including the BeLinkers. Thanks for the comment.

Let's skip the question of whether my industry wide acceptance rates of RFID are valid or not (by asking me where the data is coming from you are really saying you dont believe it – that’s fair). Lets just all agree that the number of tradeshows worldwide using RFID is very very small.... 2% or 3% or 4% doesn’t really matter, the point I was trying to make is still valid. When Steve Hacker (or anyone) makes public pronouncements about the future of some very specific product in this market it is fair to research past predictions for accuracy by Steve. Every metric I track related to RFID in the tradeshow market tells me that the percentage of shows using RFID is very very small (and RFIDadvocate: it is not because I have a vested interest in barcodes or mag stripes or red dots on foreheads, I am only interested in which way the surf is breaking). One of the more interesting though admittedly anecdotal metrics about RFID usage is ExpoExpo! When was the first IAEM (or IAEE) seminar on RFID as the next best thing? 2003? When did ExpoExpo use RFID as its technology platform? 2006? What did it use as its technology platform in 2007 and 2008 and what will it use in 2009?
Ok so enough about whether or not RFID has generated any sizable market share in the global tradeshow environment in the last 5 years, it hasn’t. And Iraq STILL doesn’t have WMD’s. Which is not to say that RFID may not have a sizable market share in the next 5 years (not withstanding what Steve is predicting), but until the numbers tell me it is, it isn’t there yet.
Stephen, my prediction (sorry about the misspelling in my previous post) for the next important innovation?
I predict that in the year 2015 our industry will still not have standards, and as a result, the hodgepodge of solutions being brought to this industry every year will continue to be laughed at by the real world. Without standards every important innovation that could make a difference in this market will be DOA.
I predict that sometime after 2020, when a generation of association managers who have grown up using tools whose wide acceptance relies on industry standards (credit cards, banks, phones, etc.) become the leaders of industry associations (like IAEE) they will create standards that everyone can use in the tradeshow market because it is the right thing to do for the industry. Standards will hurt current vendors with business models based on proprietary data and proprietary collection devices but the interests of these long serving vendors will be secondary to the industry as a whole when a new crop of leaders come online after 2020.
And for those of you who want to research MY market predictions: I have been saying this same thing about standards since 1985. Our industry was hurt by not having standards in 1985, we are still being hurt by not having standards and we will continue to provide mediocre products and services until standards are in place.
My technology predictions for 2010? Red dots on foreheads. “I predict that this technology application will quickly dominate and you will be seeing it applied as a valuable solution to many exhibition and event industry issues.”

DevilsAdvocate - First let me thank you for your efforts to detail out your comment. Whether I agree or not, I still appreciate and enjoy a good discussion. You have raised several interesting points. I do agree that RFID has not become a widely distributed solution in our industry. While it is useful to a small number of shows, costs versus ROI have kept industry adoption small. I suspect that RFID will never become the most widely used tool for relationship building and lead generation. I also question the value of social networking solutions as audience adoption participation rates remains small for most events. We are in agreement about industry standards and the problems our industry faces until standards are adopted. Finally - we disagree on dots - I think they will be blue.

@DevilsAdvocate & Stephen
Sorry to beat the horse as this is 30 days old, but I am curious. I agree with much of what I am reading, and I agree with the need for standards. And please forgive my ignorance, I am sure this topic has been discussed and I just missed it.

In an industry where everyone protects their technology like a prison meal, how do we begin to adopt standards? Won't it be like the Hatfields and McCoys getting together for a barn raising?

Bob Howard,
Never too late to keep discussing a topic that is just as relevant today as it was when it was posted.

The key to industry standards is to demonstrate that the agreed standard most be adopted or the supplier loses business. This requirement is placed back on technology buyers, especially some of the larger players. If a coalition of major show organizers will subscribe to the standard, then the suppliers will follow. Unfortunately in the past, the suppliers have tried to come together to create the requirements. This approach will never find enough agreement or support of buyers and suppliers.

Bob: Regarding standards; the trade show industry is no different than any other industry that successfully and routinely sets standards for itself. A standards committee is formed consisting of ALL interested parties (this would include show organizers, suppliers and end users), in the case of the trade show industry creating the standards would be a slam dunk, from my point of view, mostly because the market is so small and the players are well known. The only difference between other industries and the trade show industry is the industry associations, like IAEE, who seem to have an aversion to demanding or even supporting standards.
Which brings me back to my real reason for posting to this blog today.
Three months after Steven Hacker wrote the original article (above) in response to Stephen asking for industry participants to provide a guest post about technology in the trade show and exposition market, we get the punch line of the joke. (see the July news release www.iaee.com/press_releases.details.php?id=426) with the really comical offering of the XNIP cell based product at ExpoExpo. So now we know who Steven Hacker was pimping for when he wrote (or did he use a ghost writer?)in the April post.
There are by my count at least 6 companies, based in the US, AND long time members of the IAEE AND multiple year exhibitors at ExpoExpo who have similar (in my opinion better) attendee digital literature products available for show organizers (not cell based) but for some reason Steven Hacker has decided to lobby for the newest scheme to appear in this market rather than support long time members with similar proven products and capabilities. One can only wonder why. Maybe Steven is trying to make his prediction come true; that cell based technologies will be a 'real breakthough' and 'will quickly dominate' in this market. OK Mr. Hacker, the clock is ticking. So far in 2009 one show (ExpoExpo) is known to use this service in the US (a google search shows three show in the last 3 years in Germany). It will be interesting to see if this new service gets the same lobbying effort by IAEE they gave to RFID over the past few years at seminars and 'tech' meetings.
For my part I have decided to follow the example of John W. Rowe, the CEO of Exelon (one of the countries largest utilities) who last week announced his company would quit the United States Chamber of Commerce over its climate-change denial stance. Like Mr. Rowe I cannot continue to support through membership or participation an association who is so obviously in the pocket of the highest bidder or worse, makes business decisions that are so completely at odds with its membership just because the President of the association is trying to prove that he really is doing something. Down on the farm we called such behavior whimsical. I realize the IAEE will never even notice the loss of my company’s membership or participation but the good news is that I promise, AS SOON AS this new XNIP cell based numbering system DOMINATES the market I will be the first one to send in my membership renewal check.